Points
20Points expected by the market
32.71Gap
−12.71Yield
−62.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.77 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 5 | −5.99 | −70.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 28 | 15 | −4.96 | −59.1% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.77 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 4 | −4.48 | −62.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 10 | +1.29 | +4.1% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 1 | −1.51 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 5 | −6.25 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Manchester City · Home16 Aug 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| M2 | Bournemouth · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.91 | −1.59 |
| M3 | Everton · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.16 | −2.75 |
| M4 | Newcastle · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.53 | −3.27 |
| M5 | Leeds · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.29 | −4.56 |
| M6 | Tottenham · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.31 | −4.26 |
| M7 | Brighton · Home5 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.09 | −4.35 |
| M8 | Sunderland · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.23 | −5.58 |
| M9 | Burnley · Home26 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.77 | −7.35 |
| M10 | Fulham · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.90 | −8.25 |
| M11 | Chelsea · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.54 | −8.79 |
| M12 | Crystal Palace · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.90 | −9.69 |
| M13 | Aston Villa · Away30 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.63 | −10.32 |
| M14 | Nottingham Forest · Home3 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.21 | −11.53 |
| M15 | Manchester United · Home8 Dec 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.80 | −12.33 |
| M16 | Arsenal · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.24 | −12.56 |
| M17 | Brentford · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.11 | −13.68 |
| M18 | Liverpool · Away27 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.40 | −14.08 |
| M19 | Manchester United · Away30 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.44 | −13.64 |
| M20 | West Ham · Home3 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.64 | −12.00 |
| M21 | Everton · Away7 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.09 | −11.91 |
| M22 | Newcastle · Home18 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.13 | −11.78 |
| M23 | Manchester City · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.47 | −12.25 |
| M24 | Bournemouth · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −13.49 |
| M25 | Chelsea · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.76 | −14.25 |
| M26 | Nottingham Forest · Away11 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.14 | −14.11 |
| M27 | Arsenal · Home18 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.61 | −13.50 |
| M28 | Crystal Palace · Away22 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.89 | −14.39 |
| M29 | Aston Villa · Home27 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.13 | −12.26 |
| M30 | Liverpool · Home3 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.39 | −9.87 |
| M31 | Brentford · Away16 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.29 | −9.58 |
| M32 | West Ham · Away10 Apr 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.90 | −10.48 |
| M33 | Leeds · Away18 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.68 | −11.17 |
| M34 | Tottenham · Home25 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.83 | −12.00 |
| M35 | Sunderland · Home2 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.04 | −12.04 |
| M36 | Brighton · Away9 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.45 | −12.48 |
| M37 | Fulham · Home17 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.04 | −12.44 |
| M38 | Burnley · Away24 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.27 | −12.71 |
| Total | 20 | −12.71 | |||