Points
7Points expected by the market
8.86Gap
−1.86Yield
−23.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.61 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 6 | +0.99 | +53.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 1 | −1.23 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.61 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.33 | +38.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.80 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.66 | +67.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.44 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Everton · Away22 Aug 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −1.21 |
| M2 | Manchester City · Home28 Aug 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.80 | −2.01 |
| M3 | Fulham · Away5 Sep 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.87 | −0.14 |
| M4 | Ipswich · Home12 Sep 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.61 | −1.75 |
| M5 | Leeds · Away20 Sep 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.19 | −1.56 |
| M6 | Nottingham Forest · Home11 Oct 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.70 | +0.14 |
| M7 | Brighton · Away18 Oct 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.62 | −0.48 |
| M8 | Newcastle · Home25 Oct 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.38 | −1.86 |
| Total | 7 | −1.86 | |||