Points
10Points expected by the market
7.48Gap
+2.52Yield
+13.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 10 | +5.17 | +126.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 0 | −2.65 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 7 | +3.30 | +93.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.80 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.87 | +227.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 0 | −1.85 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sunderland · Home22 Aug 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.71 | +1.71 |
| M2 | Manchester United · Away30 Aug 2026 | L 2-5 | 0 | −0.54 | +1.17 |
| M3 | Liverpool · Home4 Sep 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.80 | +0.36 |
| M4 | Crystal Palace · Away12 Sep 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.87 | +2.23 |
| M5 | Everton · Away19 Sep 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.88 | +1.35 |
| M6 | Fulham · Home10 Oct 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.77 | +3.12 |
| M7 | Manchester City · Away17 Oct 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.42 | +2.70 |
| M8 | Nottingham Forest · Home23 Oct 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.18 | +2.52 |
| Total | 10 | +2.52 | |||