Points
21Points expected by the market
16.52Gap
+4.48Yield
+38.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 12 | +2.58 | +30.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.43 | +22.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.46 | +120.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 12 | +2.58 | +30.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.43 | +22.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.46 | +120.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Bournemouth · Home23 Aug 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| M2 | Crystal Palace · Away28 Aug 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +1.87 |
| M3 | Coventry · Home5 Sep 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.48 | +2.35 |
| M4 | Manchester United · Away13 Sep 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.46 | +3.81 |
| M5 | Sunderland · Home20 Sep 2026 | W 5-3 | 3 | +0.70 | +4.51 |
| M6 | Liverpool · Away11 Oct 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.36 | +5.87 |
| M7 | Ipswich · Home17 Oct 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.56 | +6.43 |
| M8 | Aston Villa · Away24 Oct 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.95 | +4.48 |
| Total | 21 | +4.48 | |||