← Primeira Liga 2024-25

Estrela

Season 2024-25 · 34 matches played

Last 5LWLLL

Points

29

Points expected by the market

34.85

Gap

−5.85

Yield

−30.9%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.

M1M5M10M15M20M25M30

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds bandMatches playedMPPointsPtsExpectedGapYield
Heavy favourite under 1.50 0 — — — —
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches 1 1 1.70 −0.70 −100.0%
Even 2.20 – 3.49 15 17 20.23 −3.23 −9.1%
Underdog 3.50 or more 18 11 12.92 −1.92 −45.2%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

MOpponentDateResultRes. Odds to winExpectedPointsPtsGap Running total€1 bet
M1 Sporting de Braga · Away11 Aug 2024 11 Aug 2024 D 1-1 6.81 0.62 1 +0.38 +0.38 −€1.00
M2 Famalicao · Home19 Aug 2024 19 Aug 2024 L 0-3 3.03 1.23 0 −1.23 −0.86 −€1.00
M3 Benfica · Away24 Aug 2024 24 Aug 2024 L 0-1 16.87 0.29 0 −0.29 −1.14 −€1.00
M4 Casa Pia · Home31 Aug 2024 31 Aug 2024 L 0-1 2.45 1.45 0 −1.45 −2.60 −€1.00
M5 Boavista · Home16 Sep 2024 16 Sep 2024 D 2-2 2.02 1.70 1 −0.70 −3.30 −€1.00
M6 Santa Clara · Away21 Sep 2024 21 Sep 2024 L 0-1 5.12 0.82 0 −0.82 −4.12 −€1.00
M7 Moreirense · Home28 Sep 2024 28 Sep 2024 W 2-1 3.13 1.22 3 +1.78 −2.34 +€2.13
M8 Gil Vicente · Away5 Oct 2024 5 Oct 2024 L 0-3 4.17 0.96 0 −0.96 −3.30 −€1.00
M9 Guimaraes · Home27 Oct 2024 27 Oct 2024 D 2-2 5.02 0.84 1 +0.16 −3.13 −€1.00
M10 Sporting CP · Away1 Nov 2024 1 Nov 2024 L 1-5 27.51 0.18 0 −0.18 −3.32 −€1.00
M11 Nacional · Home10 Nov 2024 10 Nov 2024 W 2-0 2.23 1.56 3 +1.44 −1.88 +€1.23
M12 Farense · Away29 Nov 2024 29 Nov 2024 L 0-1 3.30 1.17 0 −1.17 −3.05 −€1.00
M13 Arouca · Home9 Dec 2024 9 Dec 2024 W 2-1 2.73 1.34 3 +1.66 −1.39 +€1.73
M14 Porto · Away16 Dec 2024 16 Dec 2024 L 0-2 17.71 0.28 0 −0.28 −1.67 −€1.00
M15 Rio Ave · Home23 Dec 2024 23 Dec 2024 W 1-0 2.43 1.47 3 +1.53 −0.13 +€1.43
M16 AVS · Away28 Dec 2024 28 Dec 2024 D 1-1 3.29 1.18 1 −0.18 −0.31 −€1.00
M17 Estoril · Home5 Jan 2025 5 Jan 2025 L 2-4 2.35 1.52 0 −1.52 −1.83 −€1.00
M18 Sporting de Braga · Home19 Jan 2025 19 Jan 2025 L 0-1 4.60 0.86 0 −0.86 −2.69 −€1.00
M19 Famalicao · Away25 Jan 2025 25 Jan 2025 D 0-0 4.81 0.87 1 +0.13 −2.56 −€1.00
M20 Benfica · Home2 Feb 2025 2 Feb 2025 L 2-3 13.18 0.35 0 −0.35 −2.91 −€1.00
M21 Casa Pia · Away9 Feb 2025 9 Feb 2025 L 0-1 4.44 0.93 0 −0.93 −3.84 −€1.00
M22 Boavista · Away14 Feb 2025 14 Feb 2025 W 1-0 3.12 1.23 3 +1.77 −2.07 +€2.12
M23 Santa Clara · Home23 Feb 2025 23 Feb 2025 D 0-0 3.77 1.06 1 −0.06 −2.13 −€1.00
M24 Moreirense · Away2 Mar 2025 2 Mar 2025 D 1-1 4.52 0.93 1 +0.07 −2.06 −€1.00
M25 Gil Vicente · Home7 Mar 2025 7 Mar 2025 D 1-1 2.79 1.34 1 −0.34 −2.40 −€1.00
M26 Guimaraes · Away16 Mar 2025 16 Mar 2025 L 0-2 6.64 0.69 0 −0.69 −3.09 −€1.00
M27 Sporting CP · Home29 Mar 2025 29 Mar 2025 L 0-3 9.82 0.47 0 −0.47 −3.56 −€1.00
M28 Nacional · Away6 Apr 2025 6 Apr 2025 W 1-0 3.69 1.06 3 +1.94 −1.62 +€2.69
M29 Farense · Home13 Apr 2025 13 Apr 2025 L 0-1 2.61 1.40 0 −1.40 −3.02 −€1.00
M30 Arouca · Away19 Apr 2025 19 Apr 2025 L 0-1 3.94 1.01 0 −1.01 −4.03 −€1.00
M31 Porto · Home26 Apr 2025 26 Apr 2025 W 2-0 6.18 0.70 3 +2.30 −1.73 +€5.18
M32 Rio Ave · Away5 May 2025 5 May 2025 L 0-2 3.02 1.23 0 −1.23 −2.97 −€1.00
M33 AVS · Home11 May 2025 11 May 2025 L 0-1 2.29 1.54 0 −1.54 −4.50 −€1.00
M34 Estoril · Away17 May 2025 17 May 2025 L 0-4 2.68 1.34 0 −1.34 −5.85 −€1.00
Total 34.85 29 −5.85 −€10.49