Points
43Points expected by the market
38.44Gap
+4.56Yield
+23.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 10 | +3.40 | +60.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 11 | −3.44 | −54.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 23 | 22 | +4.61 | +54.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 10 | +3.40 | +60.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 6 | −3.54 | −67.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 9 | +2.89 | +116.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 5 | +0.10 | −31.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 15 | 13 | +1.72 | +21.1% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Fiorentina · Home24 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| M2 | Napoli · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.55 | −0.77 |
| M3 | Parma · Home13 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.44 | +0.67 |
| M4 | Lecce · Away19 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.64 | +2.32 |
| M5 | Inter · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.66 | +1.65 |
| M6 | Udinese · Away5 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.06 | +1.59 |
| M7 | Bologna · Home19 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.04 | +0.56 |
| M8 | Verona · Away26 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.60 |
| M9 | Sassuolo · Home30 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.39 | −0.79 |
| M10 | Lazio · Away3 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.74 | −1.54 |
| M11 | Como · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.32 | −1.22 |
| M12 | Genoa · Home22 Nov 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.25 | −1.46 |
| M13 | Juventus · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.37 | −1.84 |
| M14 | Roma · Home7 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.25 | +0.42 |
| M15 | Atalanta · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.50 | −0.08 |
| M16 | Pisa · Home21 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.80 |
| M17 | Torino · Away27 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.14 | +1.33 |
| M18 | Milan · Home2 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.70 | +0.63 |
| M19 | Cremonese · Away8 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.45 |
| M20 | Genoa · Away12 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.04 | −0.58 |
| M21 | Juventus · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.35 | +1.76 |
| M22 | Fiorentina · Away24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.12 | +3.89 |
| M23 | Verona · Home31 Jan 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.39 | +5.27 |
| M24 | Roma · Away9 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.61 | +4.66 |
| M25 | Lecce · Home16 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.52 | +3.14 |
| M26 | Lazio · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.17 | +2.97 |
| M27 | Parma · Away27 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | +2.91 |
| M28 | Como · Home7 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.66 | +2.25 |
| M29 | Pisa · Away15 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.24 | +1.00 |
| M30 | Napoli · Home20 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.80 | +0.21 |
| M31 | Sassuolo · Away4 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −0.85 |
| M32 | Cremonese · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.33 | +0.48 |
| M33 | Inter · Away17 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.39 | +0.09 |
| M34 | Atalanta · Home27 Apr 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.14 | +2.23 |
| M35 | Bologna · Away3 May 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.12 | +2.12 |
| M36 | Udinese · Home9 May 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.43 | +0.69 |
| M37 | Torino · Home17 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.40 | +2.09 |
| M38 | Milan · Away24 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.47 | +4.56 |
| Total | 43 | +4.56 | |||