Points
41Points expected by the market
44.29Gap
−3.29Yield
−27.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 11 | −1.19 | −10.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 23 | +5.33 | +31.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 18 | 7 | −7.43 | −76.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 11 | −1.19 | −10.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 8 | +1.06 | +10.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 3 | −3.05 | −40.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 15 | +4.27 | +44.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 4 | −4.38 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Lecce · Home23 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| M2 | Juventus · Home31 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.87 | −1.78 |
| M3 | Como · Away15 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.21 | −1.57 |
| M4 | Bologna · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.98 | −2.55 |
| M5 | Lazio · Home29 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.30 | −3.85 |
| M6 | Napoli · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.58 | −4.44 |
| M7 | Parma · Home19 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.59 | −5.03 |
| M8 | Torino · Away26 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.20 | −6.23 |
| M9 | Cremonese · Home29 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.90 | −8.13 |
| M10 | Sassuolo · Away3 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | −6.32 |
| M11 | Fiorentina · Home9 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.30 | −6.63 |
| M12 | Cagliari · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.41 | −7.04 |
| M13 | Verona · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.28 | −5.76 |
| M14 | Udinese · Away8 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.82 | −3.94 |
| M15 | Inter · Home14 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.62 | −4.56 |
| M16 | Atalanta · Home21 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.04 | −5.60 |
| M17 | Roma · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.70 | −6.30 |
| M18 | Pisa · Home3 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.79 | −7.09 |
| M19 | Milan · Away8 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.41 | −6.68 |
| M20 | Cagliari · Home12 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.36 | −5.32 |
| M21 | Parma · Away18 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.32 | −5.64 |
| M22 | Bologna · Home25 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.81 | −3.83 |
| M23 | Lazio · Away30 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.08 | −4.91 |
| M24 | Napoli · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.00 | −5.91 |
| M25 | Cremonese · Away15 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.49 | −6.40 |
| M26 | Torino · Home22 Feb 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.45 | −4.96 |
| M27 | Inter · Away28 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.47 | −5.42 |
| M28 | Roma · Home8 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.03 | −3.40 |
| M29 | Verona · Away15 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.49 | −1.91 |
| M30 | Udinese · Home20 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.62 | −3.52 |
| M31 | Juventus · Away6 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.54 | −4.06 |
| M32 | Sassuolo · Home12 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.39 | −2.67 |
| M33 | Pisa · Away19 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.58 | −1.09 |
| M34 | Como · Home26 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.74 | −1.83 |
| M35 | Atalanta · Away2 May 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.32 | −1.51 |
| M36 | Fiorentina · Away10 May 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.03 | −1.54 |
| M37 | Milan · Home17 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.81 | −2.35 |
| M38 | Lecce · Away24 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.94 | −3.29 |
| Total | 41 | −3.29 | |||