Points
45Points expected by the market
37.58Gap
+7.42Yield
+11.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 4 | −0.99 | −27.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 17 | +3.37 | +36.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 25 | 24 | +5.04 | +5.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 4 | −0.99 | −27.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 10 | +1.50 | +30.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 7 | −0.78 | −63.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 7 | +1.87 | +47.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 15 | 17 | +5.81 | +52.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Juventus · Away24 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| M2 | Atalanta · Home30 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.46 |
| M3 | Cagliari · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.14 | −1.60 |
| M4 | Cremonese · Away21 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.43 | −2.03 |
| M5 | Torino · Home29 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.56 | −0.46 |
| M6 | Lecce · Home4 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.78 | −2.25 |
| M7 | Genoa · Away19 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.08 | −2.33 |
| M8 | Como · Home25 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.04 | −2.30 |
| M9 | Roma · Away29 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.59 | −2.88 |
| M10 | Bologna · Home2 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.92 | −3.80 |
| M11 | Milan · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.36 | −3.44 |
| M12 | Verona · Away23 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.92 | −1.52 |
| M13 | Udinese · Home29 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.36 | −2.88 |
| M14 | Pisa · Away8 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.76 | −1.12 |
| M15 | Lazio · Home13 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | −2.16 |
| M16 | Fiorentina · Home27 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.93 | −0.24 |
| M17 | Sassuolo · Away3 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.25 |
| M18 | Inter · Home7 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.49 | −0.74 |
| M19 | Lecce · Away11 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | +0.94 |
| M20 | Napoli · Away14 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.56 | +1.49 |
| M21 | Genoa · Home18 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.34 | +1.16 |
| M22 | Atalanta · Away25 Jan 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.50 | +0.66 |
| M23 | Juventus · Home1 Feb 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.54 | +0.12 |
| M24 | Bologna · Away8 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.24 | +2.36 |
| M25 | Verona · Home15 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.42 | +3.77 |
| M26 | Milan · Away22 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.53 | +6.30 |
| M27 | Cagliari · Home27 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.61 | +5.69 |
| M28 | Fiorentina · Away8 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.17 | +5.86 |
| M29 | Torino · Away13 Mar 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.10 | +4.76 |
| M30 | Cremonese · Home21 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.58 | +3.18 |
| M31 | Lazio · Away4 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.06 | +3.23 |
| M32 | Napoli · Home12 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.32 | +3.56 |
| M33 | Udinese · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.94 | +5.50 |
| M34 | Pisa · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +6.91 |
| M35 | Inter · Away3 May 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.36 | +6.55 |
| M36 | Roma · Home10 May 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.54 | +6.01 |
| M37 | Como · Away17 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.39 | +5.62 |
| M38 | Sassuolo · Home24 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.80 | +7.42 |
| Total | 45 | +7.42 | |||