Points
18Points expected by the market
34.49Gap
−16.49Yield
−87.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 9 | −6.53 | −59.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 26 | 9 | −9.96 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 8 | −5.11 | −51.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 2 | −4.59 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 1 | −1.42 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 7 | −5.37 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Atalanta · Away24 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| M2 | Roma · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −0.42 |
| M3 | Udinese · Home14 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.31 | −1.74 |
| M4 | Napoli · Away22 Sep 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.44 | −2.18 |
| M5 | Fiorentina · Home28 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.11 | −2.29 |
| M6 | Bologna · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.77 | −3.06 |
| M7 | Verona · Home18 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.38 | −3.44 |
| M8 | Milan · Away24 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.53 | −2.92 |
| M9 | Lazio · Home30 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.05 | −2.96 |
| M10 | Torino · Away2 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.13 | −2.83 |
| M11 | Cremonese · Home7 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.45 | −1.38 |
| M12 | Sassuolo · Away24 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.01 | −1.37 |
| M13 | Inter · Home30 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.40 | −1.77 |
| M14 | Parma · Home8 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.45 | −3.22 |
| M15 | Lecce · Away12 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.18 | −4.40 |
| M16 | Cagliari · Away21 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.02 | −4.38 |
| M17 | Juventus · Home27 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.61 | −4.99 |
| M18 | Genoa · Away3 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.10 | −4.89 |
| M19 | Como · Home6 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.85 | −5.74 |
| M20 | Udinese · Away10 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.07 | −5.67 |
| M21 | Atalanta · Home16 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.31 | −5.36 |
| M22 | Inter · Away23 Jan 2026 | L 2-6 | 0 | −0.44 | −5.80 |
| M23 | Sassuolo · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.23 | −7.03 |
| M24 | Verona · Away6 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.23 | −7.26 |
| M25 | Milan · Home13 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −7.94 |
| M26 | Fiorentina · Away23 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.76 | −8.70 |
| M27 | Bologna · Home2 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.94 | −9.64 |
| M28 | Juventus · Away7 Mar 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.35 | −9.99 |
| M29 | Cagliari · Home15 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.57 | −8.41 |
| M30 | Como · Away22 Mar 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.46 | −8.87 |
| M31 | Torino · Home5 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.22 | −10.09 |
| M32 | Roma · Away10 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.53 | −10.62 |
| M33 | Genoa · Home19 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −11.89 |
| M34 | Parma · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.10 | −12.98 |
| M35 | Lecce · Home1 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.17 | −14.15 |
| M36 | Cremonese · Away10 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.94 | −15.09 |
| M37 | Napoli · Home17 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.57 | −15.66 |
| M38 | Lazio · Away23 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.83 | −16.49 |
| Total | 18 | −16.49 | |||