Points
49Points expected by the market
43.65Gap
+5.35Yield
+24.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 11 | +2.37 | +18.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 22 | −0.95 | +16.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 16 | +3.93 | +33.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 11 | +2.37 | +18.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 9 | −0.87 | +19.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 9 | +3.43 | +112.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 13 | −0.08 | +15.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 7 | +0.50 | −26.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Napoli · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| M2 | Cremonese · Away29 Aug 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.36 | −2.11 |
| M3 | Lazio · Home14 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.03 | −0.08 |
| M4 | Inter · Away21 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.48 | −0.56 |
| M5 | Udinese · Home28 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.50 | +0.94 |
| M6 | Verona · Away3 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.82 | +2.76 |
| M7 | Lecce · Away18 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.38 | +2.38 |
| M8 | Roma · Home26 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.94 | +1.44 |
| M9 | Cagliari · Away30 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.70 | +3.15 |
| M10 | Genoa · Home3 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.48 | +1.67 |
| M11 | Atalanta · Away9 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.36 | +4.02 |
| M12 | Pisa · Home24 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.72 | +3.31 |
| M13 | Como · Away28 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.88 | +2.42 |
| M14 | Fiorentina · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.69 | +4.11 |
| M15 | Milan · Away14 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.36 | +4.47 |
| M16 | Torino · Home21 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.52 | +2.95 |
| M17 | Bologna · Away28 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.94 |
| M18 | Parma · Home3 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.69 | +2.25 |
| M19 | Juventus · Home6 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.79 | +1.47 |
| M20 | Roma · Away10 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.78 | +0.68 |
| M21 | Napoli · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.58 | +0.10 |
| M22 | Cremonese · Home25 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.31 | +1.41 |
| M23 | Pisa · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.53 | +2.95 |
| M24 | Inter · Home8 Feb 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.60 | +2.34 |
| M25 | Udinese · Away15 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.73 | +4.07 |
| M26 | Verona · Home20 Feb 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.11 | +5.19 |
| M27 | Atalanta · Home1 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.84 | +7.03 |
| M28 | Lazio · Away9 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.13 | +5.90 |
| M29 | Bologna · Home15 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.48 | +4.41 |
| M30 | Juventus · Away21 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.55 | +4.96 |
| M31 | Cagliari · Home4 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.36 | +6.32 |
| M32 | Genoa · Away12 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.10 | +5.21 |
| M33 | Como · Home17 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.33 | +7.55 |
| M34 | Fiorentina · Away26 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.04 | +7.50 |
| M35 | Milan · Home3 May 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.15 | +9.66 |
| M36 | Torino · Away8 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | +8.28 |
| M37 | Lecce · Home17 May 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.41 | +6.87 |
| M38 | Parma · Away24 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.52 | +5.35 |
| Total | 49 | +5.35 | |||