Points
45Points expected by the market
42.78Gap
+2.22Yield
−3.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 10 | +1.20 | +21.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 23 | +5.27 | +45.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 20 | 12 | −4.25 | −42.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 10 | +1.20 | +21.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 13 | +3.25 | +46.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 5 | −0.96 | −28.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 10 | +2.02 | +44.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 7 | −3.29 | −49.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Inter · Away25 Aug 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| M2 | Fiorentina · Home31 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.72 |
| M3 | Roma · Away14 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.34 | +1.62 |
| M4 | Atalanta · Home21 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.05 | +0.57 |
| M5 | Parma · Away29 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −0.67 |
| M6 | Lazio · Away4 Oct 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | 0.00 | −0.67 |
| M7 | Napoli · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.15 | +1.48 |
| M8 | Genoa · Home26 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.53 | +3.00 |
| M9 | Bologna · Away29 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.15 | +3.16 |
| M10 | Pisa · Home2 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.85 | +2.31 |
| M11 | Juventus · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.36 | +2.67 |
| M12 | Como · Home24 Nov 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.11 | +1.56 |
| M13 | Lecce · Away30 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.42 | +0.14 |
| M14 | Milan · Home8 Dec 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.77 | −0.63 |
| M15 | Cremonese · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.30 | +0.67 |
| M16 | Sassuolo · Away21 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.82 | +2.49 |
| M17 | Cagliari · Home27 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.85 | +0.64 |
| M18 | Verona · Away4 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.72 | +2.36 |
| M19 | Udinese · Home7 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.59 | +0.77 |
| M20 | Atalanta · Away10 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.70 | +0.06 |
| M21 | Roma · Home18 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −0.88 |
| M22 | Como · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 0-6 | 0 | −0.67 | −1.55 |
| M23 | Lecce · Home1 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.35 | −0.21 |
| M24 | Fiorentina · Away7 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.03 |
| M25 | Bologna · Home15 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.25 | −1.28 |
| M26 | Genoa · Away22 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.12 | −2.40 |
| M27 | Lazio · Home1 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.67 | −0.74 |
| M28 | Napoli · Away6 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −1.41 |
| M29 | Parma · Home13 Mar 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.42 | +0.01 |
| M30 | Milan · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.51 | −0.50 |
| M31 | Pisa · Away5 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.54 | +1.04 |
| M32 | Verona · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.26 | +2.29 |
| M33 | Cremonese · Away19 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.40 | +1.90 |
| M34 | Inter · Home26 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.42 | +2.32 |
| M35 | Udinese · Away2 May 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.01 | +1.31 |
| M36 | Sassuolo · Home8 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | +2.97 |
| M37 | Cagliari · Away17 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.10 | +1.88 |
| M38 | Juventus · Home24 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.34 | +2.22 |
| Total | 45 | +2.22 | |||